Ghana is projected to forgo about GHC18.15 billion in revenue by 2027 following the abolition of the Electronic Transfer Levy (E-Levy) and the COVID-19 Health Recovery Levy, according to a new fiscal analysis by the Centre for Policy Scrutiny (CPS).

The projection was contained in a study presented at a public lecture led by fiscal policy and tax expert Isaac Danso Agyiri.

The research examined the fiscal and distributional impact of scrapping the two major taxes, along with the betting tax, and concluded that while the policy shift offers relief to households and improves equity outcomes, it significantly weakens government revenue mobilisation capacity.

The study estimates that the removal of the E-Levy alone will result in a cumulative revenue loss of about GH¢8.2 billion by 2027, while the COVID-19 Health Recovery Levy is expected to account for a further GH¢9.95 billion in lost revenue over the same period. Together, the two measures make up the projected GH¢18.15 billion shortfall.

Presenting the findings, Mr. Agyiri noted that the COVID-19 levy had been one of the more stable revenue sources, given its broad-based structure within Ghana’s consumption tax system. He explained that it generated over GH¢1.72 billion in 2022 and rose steadily to about GH¢2.94 billion by 2024, despite falling short of expectations in some years.

The E-Levy, introduced in 2022 to widen the tax net through digital transactions, showed more volatile performance. It missed its initial GH¢6.9 billion revenue target in its first year but gradually improved, recording over GH¢1.8 billion in 2024 before its removal in April 2025.

The study also highlighted fairness concerns associated with the taxes, particularly the E-Levy, which it said placed a heavier burden on low- and middle-income earners who rely on mobile money services for daily transactions.

“The evidence suggests that while these taxes contributed to domestic revenue mobilisation, they also imposed uneven burdens across income groups. Their removal therefore improves equity and provides some relief to vulnerable households,” Mr. Agyiri said.

However, he warned that the fiscal consequences of the decision remain significant.

“The projected GH¢18.15 billion revenue loss is significant. Without well-designed compensatory measures, this could create additional pressure on public finances and affect government’s capacity to meet its expenditure commitments,” he added.

Beyond revenue considerations, the study found that the removal of the E-Levy is likely to further boost mobile money transactions and deepen financial inclusion, after an initial slowdown following its introduction.

It also noted that scrapping the COVID-19 levy could reduce embedded tax costs in goods and services, potentially easing price pressures and supporting consumer spending.

On the betting tax, the analysis indicated it contributed relatively little to revenue, generating between GH¢78 million and GH¢80 million during its lifespan, far below earlier projections of GH¢1.2 billion annually.

The report acknowledged ongoing government efforts to cushion the fiscal impact through reforms in the Value Added Tax system, improved compliance measures and adjustments to tax refund processes. However, it cautioned that these interventions may not fully offset the expected losses.

Speaking at the event, Executive Director of CPS, Dr. Adu Owusu Sarkodie, stressed the need for evidence-based fiscal policymaking.

“We believe that discussions on tax reforms must go beyond political considerations and focus on data, fairness and sustainability. While the removal of these taxes brings relief, the associated revenue implications cannot be overlooked,” he said.

The public lecture brought together policy analysts, academics, students and civil society actors, and formed part of CPS’s broader efforts to promote informed debate on Ghana’s tax and fiscal policy direction.

Ghana Will Lose GHC18.15 Billion in Tax Revenue by 2027 After Abolishing E-Levy and COVID-19 Levy — Research

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